Geopolitical ephemeris

2024

January

The year got off to a bad start. On 9 January, Norway authorised mining exploration on 280,000 km2 of its seabed. We are not yet at the stage of operations, which will require another passage through Parliament, but the train is moving ahead despite the major unknown impact on ecosystems. Who's next? And above all, why can a single country decide on such a step forward?

BRIC (2009), BRICS (2011), BRICS+ (1 January 2024)… Fifteen years after the emergence of the Brazil-Russia-India-China bloc representing 45% of the world’s population and a third of global GDP, the group has expanded to include five new countries following South Africa’s staggered entry. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, Iran, and membership applications that are not about to stop. This astonishing melting pot of authoritarian, feudal, and democratic regimes continues to take shape. The stakes are clear: to have a greater say in global governance in the face of institutions that have historically been dominated by others. The BRICS stopped asking for a voice a long time ago. Now they are getting organised and they are taking it.

February

While the African Cup of Nations is in full swing in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are seeking to extricate themselves as quickly as possible from ECOWAS, the Economic Community of West African States. Under military junta since 2020, 2022 and 2023, these three landlocked countries are among the poorest in the world and depend on their neighbours for imports and trade. Political folly or reasoned strategy? The fragile regional balance in West Africa is still in the news.

A reminder of the Hollywood style scenario of the siege of the Capitol. Just two years and one month after the events that lasted 3 hours and left 5 people dead, 140 injured and 700 under investigation, a free pass for criminal immunity has not actually been issued to the outgoing Head of State who incited such violence and he was found guilty of a series of financial frauds. While this is a step towards reconciling people with politics, it also shows that people have short memories. With nine months to go to the next US presidential election, the polls are making us pinch ourselves.

This is the month of anniversaries. 2 years since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, 20 years since the creation of Facebook, 70 orbits round the sun for the Turkish President... In Dakar, the Senegalese President abruptly announces the postponement of the presidential election, triggering a major political crisis. In Gaza, 30,000 people mourned against a backdrop of political resignation within the Palestinian Authority. In New York, the former (and soon-to-be new) American president is found guilty of a series of financial frauds. In the world of technology, there was a row in Brussels over the merger between Microsoft and Mistral IA. Yet another sign that everything can be bought. The United States have made short work of Europe's desire for independence and sovereignty.

March

The European regulation on digital markets comes into force for access control companies with a turnover of more than €7.5 billion and more than 45 million monthly users in the EU. These companies include Alphabet (Google, Chrome, Android, Youtube), Amazon, Apple (iOS, Safari, App Store), ByteDance (TikTok), Meta (Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, Messenger) and Microsoft (Windows, LinkedIn). These companies will no longer be able to impose default software or re-use personal data collected for another purpose without consent (the devil is in the fine print).

5,000 km away, Iran goes to the polls eighteen months after the death of Mahsa Amini, against a backdrop of intense political and social crisis and 40% inflation. In the East, Putin was unsurprisingly re-elected by 88.5% and it is no longer the opposition who can say the opposite. R.I.P. Russia is in for another six years of him. From 1999 to 2008. From 2012 to 2030. One increasingly wonders what purpose the democratic appearance serves in an increasing number of elections. All countries combined, it is genuinely getting depressing.

April

Off the coast of Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States are engaging in a delicate courtship, reminding us that the stakes are higher in the East than on the old continent, even as NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary. It's a race to the bottom in the China Sea, with a dual rationale of competition and deterrence. Thirty years ago, on 7 April, Rwanda witnessed the start of one of history’s darkest chapters: a genocide that claimed 800,000 lives in just three months, 2 million refugees and displaced 1.5 million internally. At the time, the country’s population was 7 million. Today, this land of a 1,000 hills has transformed into a beacon of African prosperity.

May

New Caledonia ignites. A curfew, restrictions on the sale of ammunition (and alcohol), a ban on carrying weapons... It was a constitutional law that set off the fuse. Passed by the Senate and then the National Assembly, it provided for the Caledonian electorate for provincial elections to be expanded to include all New Caledonian natives as well as residents who had been resident for at least ten years. Four months later, the law was repealed. On the Azerbaijan-Iran border, a helicopter crash claimed the lives of the Iranian president and foreign minister, against a backdrop of regional instability that did little to reassure. Meanwhile, China is colonising the far side of the moon. The Chang'e 6 mission set off to take soil samples.

June

Some are luckier than others and that goes for governments too. Nearly 9 million tonnes of rare earths have just been discovered in Norway. A key chemical element in the current ecological and digital transitions, this news has given Europe, which is ultra-dependent on external mining supplies, a bit of a boost. Meanwhile, Kim and Vladimir seal a mutual defence agreement in Pyongyang. Both have nuclear toys. Should we be worried?

July

The maiden flight of Ariane 6 from Kourou has put Europe back in the space race. Some will say too late (4 years delay...), others will say at last (no European launcher for a year when SpaceX launches its Falcon 9s twice a week...). Eleven micro-satellites assembled by universities took advantage of the rocket to put themselves into orbit for scientific missions. Meanwhile, Belgium handed over the presidency of the European Union to Hungary and Central Asia hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit. Created in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to stabilise Central Asia, the organisation has expanded and continues to show its loyalty to Chinese diplomacy.

August

#MeToo. Call for expressions of interest. Recruitment for the French Prime Minister is open... The dance of politics in all its ugliness. With a dozen contenders coming out of the woodwork to save France, the office of Prime Minister has never been so popular.

September

Chinafrica has the wind in its sails. The 9th Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) opened in Beijing, bringing together a host of heads of state and officials. In Algeria, the incumbent president was re-elected with 84% of the votes cast, much to the dismay of Boualem Sansal. Beepers and walkie-talkies exploded all over the Middle East and Russia changed its nuclear doctrine. The Olympic truce is over. If ever there was one.

October

In a tragic reminder that a risk-averse culture is no longer optional, Spain is under water. In the Valencia region, 600 litres/m2 fell in three hours and more than 200 people paid with their lives. Meanwhile, China is celebrating its 75th birthday with great fanfare and the nine BRICS+ heads of state are meeting in Russia to discuss the state of the world with the United Nations and thirty other countries. It's not certain that the 19th Sommet de la Francophonie in Villers-Cotterêts will be as influential. One year on from 7 October, Lebanon has been invaded, one hundred Israeli civilians of all ages are still being held hostage and the humanitarian situation of civilians in Gaza is described as apocalyptic.

November

A strange hangover on the morning of 6 November for many Americans. The attack on the Capitol was a distant memory and the democratic circus was once again dressed in virtuous garb. 35 years ago, German pickaxes destroyed the Wall of Shame in a collective catharsis that brought West and East together. 12,775 days later, anti-personnel mines are being delivered to the east of Poland. Meanwhile, in Baku, the end of COP 29 and its non-binding announcements. Everything can be bought, even the right to pollute. This is written into the new rules governing the carbon credit market.

December

South Africa takes over the G20 presidency from Brazil. Martial law in South Korea lasted just a few hours. Opposition and majority MPs unanimously rejected the presidential decree dismissing any supposed imminent threat from North Korea. In Syria, bombing intensifies, but hospitals are not spared. The Belgian state is condemned for crimes against humanity for having abandoned to their fate five young mixed-race girls of Belgian fathers and Congolese mothers at the time of Zaire's independence. 64 years later, these children, now grown up, have obtained reparation.

Given the year that has just passed, let's look forward to 2025...

2023

January

This year, global governance is taking a turn to the East. India has taken over the G20 presidency for a year until 30 November next year and Japan is taking over the G7 presidency in 2023 and preparing for the next summit in May in Hiroshima. We hear whispers that China is on the verge of being dethroned as the most populous country in the world, and elsewhere the important information is that just 2 countries among the 195 States recognised by the United Nations account for more than 35% of the world’s population. Still in the East, more discreetly, Croatia became the 20th member of the euro zone in January.

Winter has brought its share of damage and some have fared better than others. The Sophia technopole seems to have been spared the serial closures of companies for the moment and everyone is negotiating their future energy contracts as best they can in the hope of limiting the rise in charges. The Biot glassmakers have been hot under the collar. Literally. With furnaces that have to remain at a constant 1,200 degrees to be able to operate, their energy bill has tripled and they have fallen outside the 15% increase limit. The price of glass imported from Germany has also doubled. This very real example shows that the raw materials crisis is far from over, and in many activities we are still trying to find glass, wood, steel and semi-conductors on reasonable terms.

February

The term 'Finlandisation' is becoming obsolete. After decades away from military alliances in its buffer role between the United States and Russia, Finland is in the process of joining NATO. Of the 30 members of the Alliance, 28 have already ratified the accession protocols for Finland and Sweden. Turkey, a member of the Alliance since 1952, and Hungary, a member since 2007, are still waiting to join, although both countries are expected to make a formal decision soon.

In the meantime, the concrete effects of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are having a ripple effect on the world's economies, particularly with respect to hydrocarbons. Russia has announced that as of 1 February, the sale of Russian oil to countries using the ceiling price of 60 dollars per barrel will be halted (this price had been fixed unilaterally by the G7 for the maritime transport of barrels) and it has just announced the halt of oil deliveries to Poland via the pipeline linking the two countries. The beginning of other hostilities, in short, by proxy of economic war. During this time, in some stations of Sophia Antipolis, petrol has reached over 2 euros per litre. A butterfly effect that we could do without.

The 6 February earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria hard has once again awakened international solidarity and put aside - at least temporarily - geopolitical tensions. Greek rescuers did not hesitate to go to the aid of the Turks and a border crossing between Armenia and Turkey that had been closed for 30 years was reopened to deliver aid. From a distance, the Sophia Antipolis technology park was not left behind and several local, associations and private initiatives were in place to respond to the emergency, in addition to the solidarity that continues to be shown in other parts of the world.

March

8 March is particularly bitter this year for all those who have roots in Iran, Afghanistan, and everywhere else where women do not have the same rights as their fathers and brothers. A quarter of the way into the 21st century and there’s still this pointless sex struggle. Counterproductive. Backward. A waste of too much time, energy and lives.

22 March marks the thirtieth anniversary of World Water Day, an initiative launched by the United Nations in 1993 to raise public awareness of this resource and encourage action to tackle the water and sanitation crisis. This is an opportunity to recall that the International Office for Water has a branch in the technology park, on Place Sophie Laffitte, and that this association, which is recognised as being of public utility, has been working in France and internationally for over three decades. This is also an opportunity to remind people that turning on a tap is not a right for a third of humanity.

April

Since 14 April the clashes in Sudan have reminded us that wars are not just to our east. Iran has put in place new repressive measures causing the closure of more than 150 businesses and continues to hang people. The Iranian and Saudi foreign ministers met in Beijing in early April to announce the normalisation of their relations after years of tension, and for the first time since the start of the Ukraine-Russia war, the Ukrainian president spoke for more than an hour on the phone with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. If even the world's diplomacy is moving east to stabilise the Middle East and Russian-Ukrainian relations, what use will our old continent be?

May

Like every year, 3 May marks World Press Freedom Day, which reminds governments of the need to respect their commitments. And like every year on the same date, Reporters Without Borders publishes its World Press Freedom Index, which evaluates the conditions in which journalists work in 180 countries. The assessment is poor for 7 out of 10 countries. The situation is considered ˮvery seriousˮ in 31 countries, ˮdifficultˮ in 42 and ˮproblematicˮ in 55. France nibbles two places (24^ème), squeezing between South Africa and Costa Rica.

Meanwhile, the King of England is crowned in pomp and circumstance that, to an outsider, seems somewhat anachronistic. New Zealand's Prime Minister has declared his wish to see the country leave the Commonwealth -without urgency- and Australia is slowly removing the effigies of British sovereigns from its banknotes. The G7 has a studious Ascension weekend in Hiroshima, the Turks are preparing to go to the polls, and surreptitiously, the BRICS are working on a common currency project to have a different impact on the world's finances. For a few days now, their combined GDP has exceeded that of the G7 countries as a whole.

June

On 18 June, the Swiss will be asked to vote on the Climate Act, which sets binding intermediate targets and indicative values for buildings, industry and transport. Finally, a clear framework for the economic forces and the general public.

Qataris are also going to the polls to renew their municipal councils. Not much is at stake in a country without political parties. In Qatar, the Municipal Council has only an advisory role, under the leadership of a Ministry of the Municipality.

Happy birthday to the Chinese leader.

June also marks 300 years of political economy with several celebrations to mark the birth of the Scottish philosopher and economist Adam Smith. The author of The Wealth of Nations was the first to clearly set out the main principles of economic liberalism and the self-regulating market. For Smith, the origin of wealth is neither gold nor money, it is the work of men, and at the basis of his doctrine, the value of work is praised. In these times of intense societal transformation when the work of the machines (re)-start to telescope the work of men, it is certainly time to re-read the classics.

July

Things were hotting up. In every direction. Will they join? Or not? The question of Ukraine's membership was (back) on the table at the NATO summit. A red line for some because of the risk of uncontrolled military escalation, a possible option for others because of the strong signal it could send for negotiations. The only certainty is that it won't happen any time soon. Further south, there’s the story of a Head of State who wanted to go to his office and was prevented from leaving his residence by his own presidential guards. This is the fourth successful coup d'état in Niger, which has taken everyone by surprise (the last was in 2010) and, above all, has buried the post-Barkhane backup strategy. To be continued... France's presidential visit to Oceania to - no less - offer an alternative to China and reposition itself in the Indo-Pacific. Perhaps we've finally learned a few lessons from AUKUS and it's not certain that the next Pacific Games will be all about sport (bravo Tahiti by the way #Tahiti2027 #MOC). Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic of Iran is now a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Everyone makes friends where they can.

August

India has landed on the South Pole of the Moon for the first time. It is now one of the great space powers. It still has to secure its bridges. The 15th BRICS summit was held in Johannesburg, or rather the BICS summit, the presence of the R being somewhat disrupted by an international arrest warrant. The world is burning. Hawaii. Canada. Greece. Tens of thousands of people are fleeing the flames - some, unfortunately, have burnt to death - and millions of hectares are going up in smoke. It could be even worse, Pyongyang might not miss its satellite launch. Meanwhile, we are suffocating in Sahelian temperatures (the comparison ends there) and since 2 August, it seems that we have consumed all the resources that our planet can regenerate in a year. One reason not to jump out of the window, the French women defended our colours with flying colours... One reason to jump, the World Robot Conference and its armada of humanoids...

September

The treaty on the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity in the high seas opens for signature. After 18 years of multilateral negotiations, it was unanimously accepted by the 193 UN member states at UN headquarters last March and is now ready for ratification by each state. The oceans, and by extension the seabed, are potentially in for a rough ride in the coming years as a result of the energy transitions underway. France, along with other countries, is pushing for international regulations that completely ban seabed mining. Cobalt, nickel, copper or manganese... appetites are being whetted. International waters - and above all what lies beneath them - are therefore currently at the heart of intense diplomatic debates, the outcome of which is not yet clear. Will the incarnations of the world risk playing sorcerer's apprentice? We'll see who lives and who dies, but this is a matter for all of us. Welcome to autumn...

October

The days when Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat shook hands are long gone. That was 30 years ago, in the last millennium. The day after the sad anniversary of the start of the Yom Kippur War, on 7 October 2023, the Middle East went up in flames. Mass terrorism, murder, hostage-taking, retaliation. Since then, international humanitarian law has been trampled underfoot, and the nebulous concept of non-equivalence of victims is gaining ground in certain networks. 20 days after the start of hostilities, the United Nations General Assembly (finally) adopted a resolution on the protection of civilians. 120 Member States voted in favour, 14 against and 45 abstained. Only 8 European Union states openly supported the text.^[1] We are entering an era that has just thrown away 78 years of history. No one will emerge unscathed. Meanwhile, the Walt Disney Company is celebrating its 100^th anniversary, and the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty, which we commemorate every year on 17 October, is not about to be abolished. After the Millennium Development Goals (2000-2015) and the Sustainable Development Goals (2015-2030), it is again time to start brainstorming for the next slogan. In view of the last two flops, one can only wonder why we do not stop setting ourselves targets that we all perfectly know will remain largely unmet. 

November

Who hasn’t signed the Bletchley Declaration? The first 29 signatories of this intergovernmental initiative, whose mission is the 'safe' development of artificial intelligence, reflect the eclecticism of the world and, above all, the current balance of power. The Anglo-Saxons, of course: the United Kingdom, the United States, Ireland, Australia and Canada. For continental Europe, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, the EU as a bloc and Ukraine. China and India, two heavyweights in terms of users and content developers, have also come to the table. From Latin America, Brazil and Chile. French-speaking Africa is absent (not for long, as the MIA is being exported), and it is Kenya, Nigeria and Rwanda that are currently positioning themselves as the continent's griots. In the Near and Middle East, Israel, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. In the Land of the Rising Sun, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore and the Republic of Korea. In this symbolic location (Bletchley was the main site for codebreaking during the Second World War), this first intergovernmental declaration paves the way for global governance of AI to understand and collectively manage its risks. In short, an AI-enabled UN, which we hope will be effective. Meanwhile, the people of Madagascar are going to the polls, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping are resuming direct diplomatic exchanges on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, North Korea has just created a public holiday to commemorate the successful test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile - ???!!!! - and Sam Altman, the Founder and CEO of Open AI, has just been sacked by his Board of Directors.

December

28 years after the first Conference of the Parties organised in Berlin by the United Nations Climate Organisation, COP 28 is being held in Dubai from 30 November to 12 December. While the venue may cause some grumbling (let's not forget that the countries alternate in hosting the COPs), this will be the first time that a stated objective has been to examine a global assessment of climate action. The next collective introspection will follow in 2028. Ironically, the President of this COP is at the same time President of a national oil company and of a public company developing renewable energies and hydrogen. Such a combination is not uncommon given the sums to be invested, and in renewable energies, the locomotives are often carbon-based, whatever the ideologues say. On another front, 26 candidates are beginning to battle it out to become the next President of a territory of 2.345 million km², equivalent in size to Western Europe, which has been in on/off conflict since 1996 (presidential elections in the DRC are scheduled for 20 December). Darfur is shaking again, and closer to home, open conflict still continues in Europe. The current uncertainty in the world has created a climate conducive to an increase in military spending, and 413 billion euros have been voted as part of the 2024-2030 military programming law, an unprecedented volume.

Considering the year that has just passed, can't wait for 2024...

^[1] Member States of the United Nations which abstained : Albania, Australia, Bulgaria, Cape Verde, Cameroon, Canada, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Ethiopia, Finland, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Haiti, Iceland, India, Iraq, Italy, Japan, Kiribati, Latvia, Lithuania, Northern Macedonia, Monaco, Netherlands, Palau, Panama, Philippines, Poland, Republic of Korea, Moldova, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, South Sudan, Sweden, Tunisia, Tuvalu, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Vanuatu, Zambia.

Votes against: Austria, Croatia, Fiji, Czech Republic, Guatemala, Hungary, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Tonga, United States.

In favour: the remaining 120 UN member states.